Home

How might wildfire affect your local community? How can you protect your family, home, and neighbors? You've got questions. We've got answers. Visualize wildfire risk and simulate the impacts of a hypothetical wildfire below.

Step 0: Preset Scenarios

Unsure where to begin? Select a preset scenario below.

Homeowner Scenario This scenario simulates a fire starting in the Los Gatos area. The scenario allows you to see a fire from a homeowner's view. Be sure to think about possible evacuations, community awareness, and the economic as well as health impacts.

City Manager This scenario simulates a fire starting in the Morgan Hill area from a new barbeque area. The scenario allows you to see a fire from a city planner's view. Be sure to think about the economic as well as health impacts.

Climate Activist This scenario simulates a fire starting in the Summit West forest area. The scenario allows you to see a fire from an activist's view. Be sure to think about the demographic as well as environmental impacts.

Climate Activist with Climate Change This scenario simulates a fire starting in the Summit West forest area, under climate change. The scenario allows you to see a fire from an activist's view. Be sure to think about the demographic as well as environmental impacts.

Step 1: Understand the Risks

Visualize the various risk factors at play when wildfire strikes.

Wildfire Risk Wildfire Hazard Potential, an index that quantifies the relative potential for wildfire that may be difficult to control, used as a measure to help prioritize where fuel treatments may be needed. Data curated by the U.S. Forest Service, available here.

Historical Wildfires Footprints of past wildfires occurring between 1950-2020. Data curated by CalFire, available here.

Population Population density measured in people per square kilometer, derived from 2018 population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. Data curated by the U.S. Forest Service, available here.

Housing Housing density measured in units per square kilometer, derived from 2018 housing unit estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. Data curated by the U.S. Forest Service, available here.

Step 2: Select an Ignition Point

Click on the map or type below to select an ignition point.

Latitude Latitude of fire ignition point.

°N

Longitude Longitude of fire ignition point.

°E

Step 3: Set a Baseline

Specify baseline weather conditions for the wildfire simulation from a particular day, or as the climatological average conditions in a particular month.

Historical Data Selects baseline weather conditions from a particular date. Data curated by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, available here.

Climatological Data Selects baseline weather conditions from climate normals, i.e., average monthly conditions from 1990-2020. Data curated by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, available here.

Step 4: Adjust for Climate Change

Under climate change, higher temperatures, lower humidity, and higher winds are expected in the Bay Area. Adjust the weather conditions below away from their baseline to see how wildfire spread will be affected.

Temperature Adjusts temperature used in the simulation relative to the selected baseline conditions. In general, higher temperature accelerate wildfire spread (Finney 1998). Higher temperatures are expected in the Bay Area under climate change (IPCC 2021).

0 °C

Humidity Adjusts humidity used in the simulation relative to the selected baseline conditions. In general, lower humidity accelerates wildfire spread (Finney 1998). Lower humidity is expected in the Bay Area under climate change (IPCC 2021).

0 %

Wind Speed Adjusts wind speed used in the simulation relative to the selected baseline conditions. In general, faster wind speeds accelerate wildfire spread (Finney 1998). It is not clear how average wind speeds in the Bay Area will change under climate change. However, storms of greater frequency and intensity are expected under climate change, hence the number of high-wind days is likely to increase (IPCC 2021).

0 m/s

Wind Direction Adjusts wind direction used in the simulation relative to the selected baseline conditions. Wind direction controls the primary direction of wildfire spread. It is not clear how average wind direction in the Bay Area will change under climate change. However, storms of greater frequency and intensity are expected under climate change, hence the variability in wind directions is likely to increase (IPCC 2021).

Step 5: Set a Burn Duration

Specify how long the fire simulation should run.

Duration A value of 500 minutes is usually a good starting point. Shorter durations will result in smaller fires, while longer durations will result in larger fires. Wildfires in urban and suburban areas are likely to be extinguished more quickly than wildfires in rural areas, hence shorter durations are more realistic in urban and suburban areas and longer durations are more realistic in rural areas.

minutes

Step 6: Simulate a Wildfire

Click "Run" to visualize the footprint of a simulated wildfire and its effects.

Direct Loss

Structures Destroyed Estimated number of structures destroyed by simulated wildfire based on building footprints from satellite imagery. Data curated by Microsoft, available here.

$0.00m

Structures Damaged Estimated number of structures damaged by simulated wildfire based on building footprints from satellite imagery. Data curated by Microsoft, available here.

$0.00m

Firefighters Needed Estimated number of firefighters needed to contain the simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

$0.00m

Indirect Loss

Business Closures Estimated number of businesses closed due to simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

$0.00m

Evacuations Estimated number of residents evacuated due to simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

$0.00m

Total Loss

Cost Estimated total cost of simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

$0.00m

Losses

Injuries Estimated number of injuries due to simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

Deaths Estimated number of deaths due to simulated wildfire, based on acreage and number of buildings damaged or destroyed.

Resources Needed

Hospital Beds Estimated number of hospital beds needed due to simulated wildfire, based on number of injuries.

ICU Beds Estimated number of ICU beds needed due to simulated wildfire, based on number of injuries.

Nurses Estimated number of nurses needed due to simulated wildfire, based on number of injuries.

Doctors Estimated number of doctors needed due to simulated wildfire, based on number of injuries.

Communities Affected

City Primary city affected by simulated wildfire. If the simulated wildfire is in a rural area, this may be the nearest major road.

County Primary county affected by simulated wildfire.

Equity Factors

Median Household Income Median household income of residents living in the county affected by simulated wildfire. Data curated by the U.S. Census Bureau, available here.

Bachelor's Degree or Higher Percentage of residents living in the county affected by simulated wildfire who hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Data curated by the U.S. Census Bureau, available here.

- %

Age 65 and Older Percent of residents living in the county affected by simulated wildfire aged 65 and older. Data curated by the U.S. Census Bureau, available here.

- %

Percent Nonwhite Percent of residents living in the county affected by simulated wildfire who are nonwhite. Data curated by the U.S. Census Bureau, available here.

- %

Consequences

Acres Burned Estimated number of acres burned by simulated wildfire.

0 ac

Smoke Travel Distance Estimated distance travelled by smoke from simulated wildfire, based on acres burned and wind conditions.

0 mi

CO₂e Emissions Estimated amount of carbon emissions in megatons of CO₂-equivalent produced by the simulated wildfire. According to the EPA, a passenger car typically emits 4.6 metric tons per year, and according to Carbon Independent, a single commercial aircraft typically emits 0.1 metric tons per hour of flight.

0 mt

Outdoor PM 2.5 Emissions Estimated concentration of particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (um) emitted by the wildfire in outdoor spaces. According to the EPA, particulate matter poses a risk to lung health and is particularly dangerous to individuals with asthma or other respiratory issues. According to the WHO, concentrations above 5 μg/m³ are considered dangerous.

0 μg/m³

Indoor PM 2.5 Emissions Estimated concentration of particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (um) emitted by the wildfire in indoor spaces. According to the EPA, particulate matter poses a risk to lung health and is particularly dangerous to individuals with asthma or other respiratory issues. According to the WHO, concentrations above 5 μg/m³ are considered dangerous.

0 μg/m³